MALAYSIAN CHAOS TRADER: 2011-03-20

Saturday, March 26, 2011

The Psychological Utility of Technical Analysis

Today I am starting an occasional series on one of the most fascinating and essential topics in currency trading; the interaction between the psychology of the market and the decisions of the individual trader. I hope these observations are useful; reader comments are welcome.

Technical analysis is sometimes studied as if it contains a grain of secret knowledge or portrays an intrinsic truth about currency movements. Often it is said that a specific chart formation will produce a specific price movement.

Technical analysis does nothing of the sort. A chart is a reflection of past prices, nothing more. In itself a graph cannot predict future price movements. A currency does not trade up or down because of a formation on a chart. It moves because market participants make basic assumptions about future price behavior based on the record of past price action. A charted history of price action is the cumulative story of thousands of trading decisions; it is a record of the past behavior of thousands of individual traders.

Price information is meaningful only because trader's decisions give it predictive power. A simple proof of the limited forward intelligence of historical price action is the well attested notion that fundamental developments always trump technical analysis. If the Federal Reserve raises rates unexpectedly or the Chinese Government announces it will no longer buy US Treasuries there is no chart formation that has ever existed that will prevent the dollar from rocketing up in the first instance or plummeting in the second.

Technical analysis does not produce price movement. I state the obvious because in the endless attribution of trading cause and effect to 'the market' it is easy to lose sight of the actual composition of the market--thousands of individual decision makers. The translation mechanism for technical analysis runs from the information contained in a chart, through the assessment of that information by market participants to the trading behavior of those market participants.

Another way to approach this idea is to ask, just who is the 'market' and what is it trying to accomplish every day. It is likely that over 90% of the $3.2 trillion daily volume in the FX market is speculative. That means that everyone in the market from the hedge fund trader with $1 billion under management, to the euro trader on the Deutsche Bank interbank desk to the retail trader in her study, is trying to do exactly the same thing, take home daily trading profits.

Interestingly, the overall worldwide foreign exchange trading volume in 2007, the year of the last survey, increased almost 50% from the prior survey in 2004 of $1.9 trillion daily. The counterparty reporting segment to which retail foreign exchange belongs boosted its share of turnover to 40% from 33% according to Bank for International Settlements in Basel (BIS, 2007) which conducts the tri-annual survey.

To return to my previous point, if every market participant is attempting to do the same thing, namely wring trading profits from the day's activities, how do they all go about it?

The first thing every trader does, in New York, Tokyo, London and in every land in between is to pull up charts and look for trading opportunities. Every trader looking for profit is judging the same charts. Everyone sees the same price history, and everyone identifies the same potentially profitable chart formations. And, in the absence of other factors, the majority of traders will come to the same trading conclusion based on the observed chart formations.

If euro has been in an up channel for two weeks and is approaching the bottom of the channel most traders looking for an opportunity in euro will bet on the continuance of the up trend and the maintenance of the channel. They will place buy orders just above the floor of the channel. And much of the time the charts will have been proven correct, the euro will indeed bounce from the floor of the channel. But it bounces not because, for instance, the ECB is expected to raise rates at some future date, but because of the fit between the goals, information and assumptions of the market's traders.

Traders need profits, all charts contain the same information and all traders operate with similar assumptions about market behavior based on chart formations. If enough traders place their buy orders above the bottom of the channel it becomes likely that the euro will bounce off the floor of the channel and continue the upward channel formation, barring external events of course.

There is powerful self-fulfilling logic in technical analysis, it works, because everyone trading believes it will work and makes their trading decisions accordingly. For a retail trader this knowledge is the most accessible and effective trading strategy that exists.

Joseph Trevisani
Chief Market Analyst

FX Solutions

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and Foreign Exchange involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The information contained on this email does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions,LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law.

(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; horizontal support/resistance lines in yellow; 200-period simple moving average in light blue.)

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5 Methods an ADSL Broadband Connection Can Save Your Company Money

5 Ways an ADSL Options(13)’>Broadband Connection Can Save Your Firm Cash

ADSL presents many opportunities to improve business efficiency and minimize costs. Corporations in all places, given the present financial outlook, are in search of methods to save cash either by chopping costs, with out having to give up any companies on which they rely, or by getting exceptional out of existing resources. An easy, efficient and very inexpensive solution is to explore what your ADSL connections offers. Here’s a record of the highest 5 issues that we advocate to our ADSL clients :

1. ADSL – VPN Remote entrance to the workplace
Many companies wish to enable their employees to entry servers,mail or recordsdata at the workplace when they’re at clients or at home . In the event you run your personal business you’re in all probability acquainted with the sensation if you end up working at home, on the weekend or after hours, and you keep in mind you forgot some files/mail at the office that you want?

Well even with the most affordable ADSL line you can setup a Digital Private Network (VPN). A VPN is asecure tunnel that permits the user to access the remote network as if they were on the local lan . In fact the variety of simultaneous user the road can help relies on the line speed but fortunately for us there may be a wide range of ADSL options to help this. Even for giant medium sized corporates there may be the bonded ADSL option. Part of the VPN solutions is that your remote employees will need cellular web access. The best option for this 3G or HSDPA.
Having remote access that keep them from literally having to live at the office makes for happier employyees and happy employees are better workers . More efficient use of time and naturally higher service to prospects when the sales rep can get the most recent worth list inside seconds.
2. Inter section Connections with ADSL

If you have two or extra branches you most probably have some application hosted at head workplace that branches have to access frequently, Pastel, VIP and another(a) fashionable functions are common. When searching for applications
solutions to help enterprise with branches many humble businesses try to depend on some form of disconnected solution that permits mingling of databases and records on a periodic basis. As anyone who does this knows that is by no means a straightforward course of as the appliance distributors make out and you end up losing lots of time and money checking out conflicts, corruptness and misplaced data. The solution we supply is to setup a inter-department Virtual Non-public Network (VPN). With an inter-department VPN users at the remote department can entry and run utility which are located at head office. We regularly counsel using Microsoft’s Remote Desktop jointly with the ADSL VPN to get essentially the most out of the ADSL traces uplink pace with out having to use a bigger ADSL pipe.
3. Minimize phone prices with VOIP

Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) with ADSL is one other nice method to save costs. In case you are a micro enterprise then a single ADSL line is all you need to be able to use voip and entry the Internet. If you are a larger enterprise then you have to a dedicated ADSL connection on your VOIP calls. Whats nice though is that you may make use of a cheap local solely, unshaped, ADSL account.
With the big selection of ADSL offerings on the market and the company ADSL resolution it’s attainable to run name centres off of VOIP trunks. What is nice as effectively is that VOIP might be added to an present PBX or if you happen to want a virtuoso(a) new PBX then a complete PBX VOIP answer could be provided to you. Even in case you are a larger sized enterprise but don’t wish to use VOIP on your fundamental switchboard it may be used to c00004000onnect branches to go office. Since VOIP on VOIP calls are free you can get rid of the cost of inter-department calls completely!
VOIP allows you to retain the numbers your company’s customers already use and know . You possibly can maintain you present telkom strains to for incoming calls and merely route outgoing over VOIP. Least cost routing is completed on the VOIP providers premises so you also get to make the most of routing calls over the cheapest connection with out the outlay of money for expensive routing equipment.
4. Host your own servers over ADSL securely

Another advantage is that your boss can get his or her messages without being at the office–this can turn into a vaccation for both the boss and employees . ordinarily this is a problem. Even with a VPN it can be a little bit of a problem as often the manager doesn’t have access to his regular laptop computer, with the VPN configuration, however just the resort’s computer or some type of Web cafe or suppliers/prospects computer. In this case it is best to reveal your email servers web interface over the Internet, then so long as the consumer has access to the web he or she can get their mails. We recommend utilizing one in all our uncapped ADSL options, such because the 512Kb uncapped ADSL, or the 1Mbps uncapped ADSL option for this as you get 5 fixed IP which make the hosting of software loads simpler

5. Do your buying and banking online
Although this might seem lame it is sensational how many individuals still do not use the Web to do banking and buying online. Gas prices, long lines and short tempers makes using the Internet a much better option for shopping, banking and bill-paying Moreover the convenience factor it’s also possible to lower your expenses as online buying is commonly cheaper and you can also make choices with out being distracted by all those advertisement and marketing gimmicks that retailers use to make you purchase that journal or chocolate in your way out which you don’t truly need.

Exploit your ADSL connection

I hope this article has provided you with some ideas on the way to use your ADSL connection to boost your corporation’s competitiveness. Sometime we just need to work smarter, not harder.
Mark Clarke is an Web options designer working for the South African based broadband connection firm Cyber Connect. His specialty is advising corporations on one of the best company broadband answer, with respect to funds and necessities, for their Internet or WAN connection needs.

http://www.btphoneline.co.uk
http://www.btphoneline.co.uk/broadband

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By jamie wharvell Article2008.com

Tags: existing resources, financial outlook, vpn solutions, entry servers

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Times To Trade

Trading the OTC (over the counter) currency markets offers an opportunity to hedge stock and bond investing, but really is more of a traded market following the ebbs and flows of global commerce than it is an investment arena to plan retirement from. Getting to know six major currency pairs would seem an easy task when compared to the tens of thousands of stock and bond options available for analysis.

Forex trade is not all about how each currency will move against the Usd, just as important is knowing when the market will have momentum, because that is key to not getting caught in reversals and snap-backs whilst leveraged at 100:1.

Setting times to trade really does make a lot of sense with the near-term view that forex valuations carry, and the fact that each 24 hour period has to absorb three regional commercial market's trade, in Asian, Europe and the U.S.

There are three main forex moving times that regularly garner attention, and therefore offer an ability to move prices with momentum. They are the 2am EDT German Dax futures market getting underway, the 6-7am EDT London gold/oil fixings and LIBOR rates being set, and the 11am EDT European market close.

Outside of that, the return from lunch in Japan between 11pm EDT and midnight, and the closing of the NYMEX markets at 2.30 pm EDT really are the only other times that prices move substantially and then hold.

At the end of the U.S. session the pattern is for Asian markets to try and initially reverse U.S. trade direction, although the lack of volume tends to soon allow pairs to find and hold support areas. The European markets tend to move in the same direction as Asian trade, and then Chicago based futures movement will try to reverse things back in the direction of where the U.S. previously closed, and re-set their books as the London fixings are placed between 5-6am EDT.

At 10:30am GMT in London, telephone bids for the gold and oil fixings take place, something that sets the morning clearing prices for bullion and crude dealers that (are then adjust once again at 3.30pm GMT). At 11am GMT each day in London the British Bankers Association set the inter-bank LIBOR rates, something that sets the tone for lending rates between financial market participants.

The London fixings tend to force Chicago based futures markets into a re-alignment program at 06:00 EDT that replicates the newly set fair values on oil, gold, and lending rates, and by default tends to then impact Usd based currency values. It is rare for the U.S. not to push back each morning and reverse the pattern of forex trade that came before, especially if a sizeable move has happened in overnight forex trade.

Forex traders really need to know what is going to trigger the technical set-ups, and therefore be prepared to ride momentum while it lasts, and to cap expectancy and exposure in things are moving against the near-term trend. In the trading forex arena there are different things to look for than in the equity and bond investment world; a week in forex absorb fifteen regional equity market moves, and all of which are movinmg for varying commercial regions, and using foreign exchange to hedge commitments, repatriate overseas profits, align reserve values, and garner swap interest.

The European and NYMEX close (11am EDT and 2.30 pm EDT are the U.S. based things to get out of the way, because then, maybe, the equity markets can reveal where they really want to go, and by default send the Usd in the opposite direction. Traders looking for moves outside of 2am, 6am, 11am, and maybe 2:30 EDT, may just find themselves sitting and waiting, wondering why they just bought the high of the day that then reversed.

Try it out, take a look at a volume study in forex futures, or look at the longest daily 30 minute candles, and see on average what time they hit. Then look at the times that nothing happens. That is not luck, it is the forex market tagging along, following the ebbs and flows of global commercial trade.

As the global economy travels trades its way out of the business cycle trough phase, the leaning is towards looking at S&P futures trade to confirm near-term sentiment, and risk tolerance. The speculators are never too far away from the S&P in times of fear; either selling into the fear of loss, or buying into the fear of missing profits. That is the reason for so much near-term volatility, and that is how things will stay until signs of GDP expansion are seen globally.

Until then it seems that the 24 hour a day S&P futures trade will set up the eight hour S&P cash market for currency traders to monitor, that will be followed by the S&P futures market tracking the 16 hours of Asian and European activity. Forex will follow that equity trend, at least until interest rates start to rise globally, and economic expansion takes place. At that time interest rate differentials will take over the valuation of forex pairs, to the greater degree.

TheLFB Risk Disclaimer can be found at http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=174.

The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of TheLFB Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of LFB Services, LLC.

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Trade Less Win More

I love to trade. 10, 20, 30, 40 round turns per day - the more the merrier! After all anyone who is really honest with themselves will admit that we trade not only for money, but for excitement. For a trader there is nothing sweeter than having the market go your way. Its our drug of choice and we are all junkies to one degree or another.

Trading is first and foremost a passion. How many jobs do you know where people can't wait for Monday (or in our case Sunday night)? We are all fortunate to be involved in an enterprise that we care so much about and enjoy. But trading is also a business. And the cold hard, truth of the business of trading is that the more you trade the more you lose.

Of course there are exceptions to this rule. Some traders are extremely adept at high frequency trading and can churn out profits doing 200 round turns per day. Those traders, however, are few and far between. I call them the idiot savants of trading because they tend to have a supernatural feel for price action. For the rest of us mere mortals. rapid trading is usually a suckers game. Many times have I booked hundreds of pips of profit in Europe only to give them all back during North America trade.

The reason why frequent trading is so hard is because most of the time price action is random. The more often you enter the market the more likely you are to step in front of some monster order on the other side and get rolled over by the flow.

While it is all good and well to pontificate about discipline and patience it is also utterly unrealistic to expect us flawed human beings to follow such advice. That is why it is crucial to have a garbage account in which we unleash all of our gambling instincts without doing any serious harm to our net worth.

With so many brokers now offering micro lots, the creation of a garbage/gambling account couldn't be easier. They key is to make sure your well reasoned. disciplined trades go into you real account, and all your impulse trades go into the garbage account. If we can't realistically follow the dictum of Trade Less Win More. we should at least attempt to minimize the damage of our cravings.

Here is this weeks video including the Trading Live with Boris trade.

Boris Schlossberg
BKTraderFX

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Wedding Photography – Tips For Newbies

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Commercial Advertising Photo Shoots

When doing a commercial photograph shoot of a star client You not just have to be good at what you do, you have got to be consistent and work well under pressure. You not just have to make the Celebrity content but supply a photo that all others involved are happy with. Infrequently they'l...

How To Steer Clear Of Flash Over-Ex....

Even professional shooters take shots that are afflicted by flash over-exposure. The lumination generated by the flash is substantial, and overcomes the model's features. When the issue is severe, faces show up as white globes with the features all but indiscernible; this is one of the most challeng...

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All Good Things Come to an End: The Fall of the Carry Trade

One of the most popular currency trading strategies in recent history, the carry trade has been successfully used by traders for years. With recent market conditions, this very popular strategy is beginning to look like a losing proposition. Traders find themselves wondering is this strategy ever going to be back en vogue or will it remain taboo for generations to come? The answer is murky at best and highly dependent on the global economy and the foreign exchange market. Let's start to evaluate this by taking a look at current market conditions.

What is the Carry Trade and How does it work?

Before one can understand why the carry trade isn't working, one must first understand what the carry trade is. The short answer is that the carry trade is a trade where a currency trader or speculator is attempting to not only gain from the rise or decline of the currency pair, but also the interest rate differential between the two currencies. When carry trading, the trader buys the currency with the higher interest yield while selling the currency with the lower interest. The speculator is attempting to capture the interest rate differential as well as any appreciation in the currency. The carry trader is often more interested in the positive interest earned on the currency pair rather than the profits from the trade itself.

Sample carry trade:

Trader Buys New Zealand Dollars (Earns 7%) At the same time, Trader Sells Japanese Yen (Pays 0.25%) If the currency pairs stays at the same rate for the entire year trader makes 6.75% (Interest Rate Difference)

If this is a 100k position, the trader has earned 6.75% interest on 100,000. With 10:1 leverage, the trader put up 10k and earned $6,750NZD.

In the recent past, the NZDJPY has often been a great example of the carry trade strategy. Forex traders bought this currency pair not for economic growth in the New Zealand economy, but for its carry trade opportunity. Currency traders jumped at the chance to earn the high 8 percent interest rate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was offering at the time while simultaneously, paying a cost of 0.5 percent for the Japanese Yen. This 7.5% rate on margined funds lead to huge potential gain which helped money managers garner a high return coupled with the rise in the currency as the New Zealand dollar appreciated against theYen.

The fall of the carry trade

Like great empires, all good things must come to an end, and this includes the carry trade. Three major concepts have recently taken down this seemingly infallible strategy. With that said, conditions may again become favorable once the market downturn runs its course.

Increase in Risk Aversion

An increase in currency market volatility, which is often signified by the large increase in average daily ranges, causes investors became more risk averse. In turn, these investors decide to close these high risk positions. As short term benefits for the carry trade and many stocks decrease, traders close out of their carry trade positions in the FX market. The carry trade, which was once the stable position, is no longer viable as carry trades work best in less volatile environments. Carry traders are now keeping their distance.

Interest Rates Cuts

With a great deal of global economies in jeopardy and desperate to free markets, they have decided to begin cutting interest rates. This has caused traders and money managers alike to reconsider their already long term carry trade positions. The eight percent return they were previously getting is now a smaller five to six percent return. Although the Japanese yen, a favorite funding currency for the carry trade has also slightly lowered their interest rate from .5% to .3% their interest rate differential is still less. This shrinking differential became too small to compensate against increasing losses as the New Zealand dollar began to weaken. This led to a mass asset reallocation so traders could cut losses and try to build funds elsewhere.

Government Intervention

Although rare, government forex intervention can occur, most often as a tool when a countries currency either rises or declines faster than central bank expectations. It has rarely been used or mentioned as carry traders exited en masse. The absence of intervention helped to fuel a new generation of sellers as favorite carry candidates took a beating. The list included popular carry trade currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, Euro and British Pound. Had central bank policy makers hinted at some potential action. Unfortunately, this was not the case and there was nothing to curb the downfall.

Where Can We Go From Here?

Risk aversion risk won't last forever, nor will these volatile markets. Forex, like the equity markets typically recover along when investors appetites for higher returns increase. There have been similar situations that appeared in the last ten years, and carry trades will likely repeat once volatile markets have calmed. This opportunity will take some time to resurface, but it will be worth the wait.

When conditions are ideal again, here is what to look for in a carry trade.

1. Low Market Volatility

The carry trade works best when market volatility is low

2. Healthy Economy of the Higher Interest Rate Currency

Healthy economies are vital for the carry trade to work and are a large part why it is currently failing. Be sure to watch out for strengthening global economies after volatility calms.

3. Large interest rate differentials:

An example of a good pair to look at would be the British Pound if it has a 4.50% interest rate and the Japanese Yen if it has a 0.50% interest rate.

Richard Lee is the Chief Currency Strategist for Online Forex Trading, a currency trading website that focuses on providing actionable forex news, unbiased forex broker reviews and trading software reviews. Richard has been featured on Bloomberg, FX Street, Yahoo Finance and DailyFX.

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Friday, March 25, 2011

Reasonably Priced Home In The United States: Atlanta Real Estate

While Atlanta Real Estate housing is the most frequent thing identified in US, prices of the identical are the most challenging thing. A explore commissioned on this in 2006, dug out that over 50% of the residents of United States cannot afford to invest in a medium priced house. According to the Home builder’s association, about 40% of the gross existing and New houses sold nationwide, in the third quarter, were reasonably priced to individuals and families who earn about $60,000, the natural US income. Nevertheless, the great news is which, in spite of the rise in the interest rates of mortgages during the third portion of the year, the affordability has not been a lot influenced on the national level.

This has happened as several markets witnessed a slight decline in the prices of Atlanta Real Estate premises, which has actually aided in offsetting the mortgage rates to jump higher. According to the survey, Indianapolis is the most very affordable of the cities for House Purchasing, as per the calculations of HOI. The city has retained the rank consecutively for the last five quarters. Of all the housing units sold in the city, about 86% of them cost around or below $65,000, which is the average US income. In this metro city, the homes are usually priced around $122,000, which was slightly lower, during the last quarter.

An interesting fact about Atlanta Real Estate homes in US is that, most of these condos, housings and homes are situated in the northern industrialized metro areas. Cities, apart from Indianapolis, that top the listing of inexpensive and cost-effective homes in US, are in Brand-new York, Michigan and Pennsylvania. consumers could flock around these places, according to their specifications and convenience, to Acquire luxurious Properties at a low price. There are even some smaller cities in US that house the best and least expensive homes for sale. These locales are Bay City, Springfield, Mansfield, Lansing, Battle Creek, Canton-Massillon and Lima. California is a good hub of pricy and unaffordable Premises for the two significant and small metro cities.

In spite of the superior expenses and unaffordable Buildings, widespread across the nation, leaving those locations out, there are still metro areas, where Buying Atlanta Real Estate homes don’t kill finances. You only have to discover out a suitable location.

If you are looking for a ideal Atlanta Real Estate Dwelling, which will provide you with all the facilities, as well as charge you low, then call us. We sell all sorts of commercial and noncommercial premises. If you are looking for Atlanta Realtors in your region please explore our web site today by clicking on the backlink.

Tags: battle creek, metro city, home builder

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The U.S. Session Trader's Daily Forex Question

The U.S. session, trader's daily 09:45 EDT question; "Oh dear, do we now want to take a U.S. based trade and run the risk of a price move stranding things with no momentum, as 80% of U.S. sessions do?"

The law of probability says that U.S. trade will not follow through with sustainable breaks on new positions, and with what came before the Wall Street open, we already have seen that the bullish S&P start could literally go anywhere. TheLFB equity tracking system shows that the main components that we use to gauge S&P momentum has only four out of thirty companies trading in the green.

If this move is to hold, and by default the Usd is to get weaker, a huge raft of volume needs to hit that lifts all stock indices, as well as oil and gold trade. Not to say that could not happen, but it is questionable as to whether it will hit and hold before the European markets go into their close at 10:30 EDT.

The fact that gold moved $10, or 1% in five minutes at the open, and the S&P managed to tag on 0.3%, leaves another question as to why oil has not moved too far, and further enforces the feeling that the Wednesday move could hold. The majors are so far from their previous session highs or lows, that actually breaking new ground and holding for a ride on the dollar is very unlikely; unless a volume tsunami hits.

There is nothing at all clear-cut about the picture we have on the major pairs, and the global market Usd drivers. All are overbought in the near-term, and the major pairs are all dealing with daily chart Simple Moving Average areas that really are creating massive support and resistance areas to work through.

Volume and speculative interest is very light, creating an environment that offers plenty of volatility, but also failed breaks, in the same measure. Global equity trade is flat, and commodity markets are also flat-lining after efforts to hold support this week. In all, not an easy environment to issue high probability signals.

TheLFB Risk Disclaimer can be found at http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=174.

The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of TheLFB Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of LFB Services, LLC.

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The Art of Contrarian Trading: Volume, Consolidation, Distribution, Headlines

Traders are at a stage in the market cycle that is one of the most frustrating to deal with, and where the most money gets squandered trying to work things out. This stage is when we go through a phase of consolidation, moving sideways consolidating the recent moves made, while anticipating a continuation of the previous trend. Consolidation can extend itself so far, and for so long, that it actually turns naturally into distribution, (where the asset starts to get sold as the realization that the original trend has expired), when there is no more forward momentum. Add in low volume levels, as we have right now, and volatility starts to decrease a little. As market participants get comfortable with the status quo.

Volume: When used as a confirmation tool that the price point chosen being monitored by others volume is invaluable. But as an exact count, as traders are accustomed to in equities, it is like comparing apples and pears; both look good, both work, they both taste different, but both have a benefit in use. The volume that we see in the spot forex market reflects very well the actual, countable, volume that is seen in the futures currency trade. On a higher market participation (volume) day there is more chance of hitting your target in good time compared to a below average volume day.

Consolidation: Protecting the current price point; not wanting to go up or to go down. Consolidation phases usually happen on light volume.

Distribution: Liquidating the positions that are being held, but not wanting to reveal that it is being done whilst getting ready for a move in the opposite direction. Distribution phases usually have heavy, erratic volume spikes as the commodity or asset is liquidated, and bought back in smaller amounts by the party looking to distribute; they have to buy some back to stop the distribution turning into a sell-off before they are finished distributing.

Distribution: A sideways pattern of trade that is caused by the distribution, or selling of an asset before a reversal of the recent move occurs, looks to be happening on the major pairs. They have run out of forward momentum, and the consolidation phase has now turned into a distribution reversal; a swing point.

For experienced market participants, the distribution phase is known to create the most market fear, or volatility, and that is what an experienced trader with a plan can feed off. There is no real way to confirm the move from consolidation to distribution until it is right upon us, and at that time the herd mentally tends to over-exaggerate the subsequent moves.

Getting into the distribution phase with a trade has to be well planned, have bigger targets, and a more flexible thought process. The herd still have their heads down as the distribution phase is happening, they are grazing on the previous trend, blissfully unaware that the change is happening on the four hour charts. Once the market players have distributed their holding of the previous trend, and have positioned themselves going the other way, it becomes time to inform the herd that things have changed, and to get their head up out of the trough, and to get a stampede going.

A screaming headline is always good for that, something along the lines of; "Dollar strength in the face of NFP misery, Buy Dollars!!!" The news headline, designed to wake the herd up, tends to reverse the recent headlines that were there to hide their efforts to distribute their holdings. Yesterday, it was "More misery for the Dollar as Recession looms!!!".

Volume, Consolidation, Distribution, Headlines; the pattern is there, it has been for decades, and still always seems to work. The Players are already in, they have worked the market mechanics, have linked the moves in the treasury, oil, gold and futures markets, have used previous trading experience to get to know how volume, consolidation and distribution work, and are waiting for just one thing; the herd to realize that they are going the wrong way.

Are you ready for the screaming headline? We have already seen the jawboning from central bankers and policy makers. All we need now is for the Players to have had their fill and to start to push the buttons that will get the herd moving.

Consolidation? Absolutely, we have had ten days of forex consolidation.

Distribution? It would seem that the way Asian trade patterns have developed that distribution has taken place; we have seen sporadic volume and some strange, untimely moves.

Volume? There is nothing strong about market participation levels recently, and that is the perfect foil to get a major job done.

Headlines? Oh yes, more than enough of them to start to realize that somebody wants the herd to move.

Daily Chart Detail: Take a look; all of the majors have consolidated so much that they are all dealing with one daily chart SMA area or another. The breaks away from these areas on increasing volume and major headlines will be key to being in the next trending phase. It is coming, all we are looking for is a volume spike way over and above the norm on a daily close. That will be the blow out bottom signal that the consolidation/distribution phase is through; a trending period of trade comes next.

TheLFB Risk Disclaimer can be found at http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=174.

The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of TheLFB Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of LFB Services, LLC.

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The Four Letter R-Word

Forex traders hear a lot about Risk; whether the markets are tolerant, averse, or neutral. It is a headline that is bandied about on a regular basis. Quantifying the value of risk, and its forex impact, may be so much harder to do in the trading arena, than reporting each day on whether the herd was charging towards, or away from risk.

In its natural state the financial market has three major attitudes towards risk that models its behavior and actions throughout each of the global trading session. The three are; risk aversion, risk tolerance and risk-neutral. Headlines overplay the four letter Risk word, it should be used sparingly as daily risk levels do not reflect the big picture of fair value on global risk, and its forex implications.

Aversion Phase:

Risk-aversion is characterized by investors selling assets in times of global contraction that are considered risky, and swapping them for the safety of the bond market, mainly U.S. Treasuries. Risk-aversion can be seen relatively easily; commodities decline (global commodities are priced in Usd values, and as such create a short commodity/Long dollar move), as investors consider that consumption will slow, while S&P futures also head lower at a sustainable pace.

In the currency market, risk-aversion strengthens the dollar, as investor sell foreign denominated assets to buy U.S. Treasuries. In this period, higher yielding currencies (those with a higher overnight, or ten year note rate) are the ones being sold the most as the Usd is bought.

Tolerant Phase:

The risk-tolerance phase is seen when Treasuries and bonds are sold as investors look for higher yields in a long-term play that reflects a confidence that the global economy is expanding. In periods of relative calm and positive macroeconomic reports, traders dilute holdings in the safety of the bond market and invest their capital in stocks, commodities and higher yielding foreign currencies. Usually, bull markets are characterized by risk-tolerant phases and in this period S&P futures and global commodities head higher. Therefore in this period the dollar is sold.

Neutral Phase:

In most cases, risk-neutrality happens when the financial market moves side-ways, unable to push to test support or resistance, and when global fair value on risk is accepted. At this stage the global economy will be hitting its peak, or hitting its trough, in the business cycle phase. This will be characterized by a re-distribution period, as investors shift their assets between the various financial instruments in preparation for the next leg of fair value on risk.

The main difference in the Neutral phase being that the shifts are not only session-by-session, they literally happen hour-by-hour as big players try to make their automated moves without detection. Sentiment is seen to change from one to the other, empowered by the relentless flow of global market trades that trigger as a contingency play, as each individual market accepts risk neutrality, or not.

The sideways moving market tends to be the more volatile as the channels are traded, and fair value sought at each regional market open and close. June through August has been risk tolerant enough to move prices in equities. However, the regional market activity has not been strong enough to attract increasing volume levels to be able to make a stance on risk for the next phase of trade to be confidently called, and therefore the currency markets continue to spin their wheels each day as dollar values are fought over.

Transition Phase:

Looking towards the next three months of trade, tenured forex traders understand that fair value on the Usd, and on risk, will be all about the phase that global business cycle are entering. The stages are; Trough> Expansion> Growth> Peak> Contraction. The five cycles take 10-15 years on average to work through and complete. The U.S. economy however has been completing the cycle in half that time, and that is making Usd long-term valuations harder to reliably plan.

Therefore when in Trough-to-Expansion, or Peak-to-Contraction phases, the market runs on risk neutrality and stocks dominate reads on fair value. This leads to a very high correlation (averaging 90%) between equity trade and Usd movement; stocks go up and Usd goes down.

When we get into the Expansion or Contraction, phase, and either one is in full flow (lasting a 5-8 year period globally, or 2-3 years in the US) risk tolerance takes over, interest rate differentials dominate the valuation of currencies, and stock market correlations reduce (averaging 60%). Fair value on risk and on the Usd becomes all about growth and interest rates.

Fed Fund Phase:

In times of Growth the Usd will increase against those currencies not showing inflation, and/or, higher interest rate outlooks. As and when the Federal Reserve raise overnight interest rates, it will be because of an inflation fear coming from economic expansion, and it will very likely be in a drip-fed manner of slow and steady increments as the attempt to keep the speculative interest on the long side of the Usd at bay.

However, the Usd will then be challenged by regional growth that does not carry the weight of massive debt and current account/trade imbalances. The Usd may never get back to 90.00 on the dollar index if global regions expand at the same pace as America. As in 1972 under President Nixon, it looks as though the U.S. in 2009 has set up Usd devaluation with an over-commitment to Treasury debt that now looks challenging, to say the least.

Weak Dollar Phase:

Coming out of a time of global Contraction and into a period of global Growth (possibly) a strong currency is not what is required, by any region. However, the U.S. looks to be the one region that literally cannot afford a stronger dollar. The insurmountable look to the U.S. Treasury debt numbers leave many to believe that the only way forward with sustainable growth, that has any chance at all of creating expansion numbers over and above the forward obligation to pay interest on the debt mountain, is with a lower value dollar.

Forex traders will be looking again at whether the global economy is prepared to welcome a slimmed down version of the greenback, something that seems a ‘must-have’ for the Federal Reserve. That however can only happen in the current environment with an increasing global equity market, and a boisterous oil market arena that maintains a high level of long speculative interest.

We have to go back to the rule book set in 1972-73 when the last major forex rule was torn up and re-set, to a time that the dollar index was born if we are to gauge the potential in a ever-decreasing Usd value Traders and investors may have to accept that going forward the Usd/Risk link may become eroded as the debt mountain surpasses equity direction as the thing that helps or impedes daily Usd valuations.

Percentage Risk Phase:

If volume hits this market in September, and following the laws of probability the month has a good chance of being negative (Shwartz Stock Market Handbook has it as historically being the worst performing equity month of the year), forex trader eyes will be all about whether the Usd gets bought in the same number as previously seen in the recent Risk Averse periods of trade. If stocks pull back and the Usd does not get bought at a 90% correlated rate, we will have a signal of two things;

Firstly that the market is valuing risk on forward Growth and interest rate differentials. Secondly, that the equity pull-back may be a technical signal that it will find support before making the next leg higher, rather than being the start of an equity collapse.

Risk Tolerance and Interest Rates will be affected by the global business cycle. Whatever the headlines roar about this session being tolerant on risk, or not, we now fully understand that at this pivotal a time, risk will be seen in the percentage correlation between equities and the Usd changing from the current 90% rate.

Forex Trader Phase:

Forex traders will be looking to see that Usd/Chf is moving hard when they place their trades, if not they will be questioning the moves because swissy has become correlated to dollar index moves holding, or not. They will also be looking for oil and S&P futures markets to stay aligned, because in any play in forex, whatever the pair being traded, the Usd does affect the momentum flow.

The Usd affects every major traded cross pair, for example; Eur/Usd x Usd/Jpy = Eur/Jpy. Also, Eur/Usd ÷ Gbp/Usd = Eur/Gbp. The synthetic pairs (no Usd on one side or the other) can only move as a percentage of the change in the major pair moves against the Usd; knowing what the drivers of the Usd are doing allows for targets to be realistically set, and lot size accordingly adjusted.

Getting secondary confirmation from inter-related markets is a must-do for any level forex trader, especially when fair value on risk is so hard to find as global markets transition from Trough to Growth. TheLFB trade team will guide forex traders with updates issued regionally, trade plans that absorb the noise and create stability, signals that track inter-related movements, daily videos that put words into pictures and with constant analysis of sentiment and momentum in the global market.

TheLFB Risk Disclaimer can be found at http://www.thelfb-forex.com/content.aspx?id=174.

The Copying, Broadcast, Republication or Redistribution of TheLFB Content is Expressly Prohibited Without the Prior Written Consent of LFB Services, LLC.

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The Essentials to Picking a Forex Robot

If you follow Forex in any way, you know that Forex robots have become wildly popular over the past few years. With the overabundance of Forex robot sales pitches, it is hard to find a robot that is actually successful. In this article, we will show you how to find the best Forex robot for your trading style, as well as what you need to know about your EA and what your realistic goals should be.

If you are looking to purchase a Forex robot, you are most likely looking to make a profit. This means different things to different people. You may be content making $50/week, or you may be seeking uch bigger money. The greater your risk tolerance, the greater the chance you will strike it big. At the same time, taking on more risk also means the chance to take bigger losses.

Your risk tolerance is going to be a key factor in dictating which robot is best for you and your trading goals. After determining this, you should look for robots that suit your trading style and analyze various statistical factors including maximum drawdown, profit factor, expectancy and efficiency. A majority of this information can be found in the Best Forex Robot report at www.bestforexrobot.com.

One thing you should realize upfront is that finding the robot that is best for you is going to cost you both time and money. There are numerous elements to look for when choosing your robot. Much of the key statistical information needed to make a sound decision can be found in the best Forex robot toolkit. In this article, we will focus on one key criterion called robustness.

It is crucial to understand that most Forex robots only work efficiently in certain types of markets. What does this mean? Some robots perform better in range bound markets while others are more effective in trending markets. The problem lies in that it is often very hard for a trader is to determine if the market is in a range or trending. One key thing you must remember is in order to achieve success with your Forex robot you should never give up the gains that it makes during a favorable market when the market is unfavorable.

So what does this mean? Assuming that your robot is most efficient in a trending market, as soon as the market starts to range you will run into complications and might begin losing money. In order to be successful with this robot you cannot lose money during the ranging market that you made during the trending market.

Furthermore, you must determine if your robot is sustainable which entails backward and forward testing it through a range of market conditions. If your robot's profitability is sustained, than it can be considered robust. Keeping this in mind, you must always remember that past results are never an indication of future performance.

You need to assure that a robot has been both back and forward tested by the vendor before even considering making a purchase. Once you have decided to go forward with the purchase you need to perform your own testing. A good Forex broker can show you how to do this. At this point, if you are unhappy with the robots performance, you should return it if possible. On the other hand, if you are happy with the robots performance, you should run it on a live micro account at first so you are only risking minimal capital in the beginning.

Our hope is that after reading this article, you should now have the proper tools and confidence to embark on your robot trading journey. Let's take a quick moment to do a final review of what you need to be a successful robot trader:

1.) Determine if your robot is robust and in line with your expectations of return.

2.) Perform extensive testing of your robot before taking it live.

3.) Start trading live on a micro account to minimize losses.

Following the guidelines above will help you get one step closer to Forex success.

Best Forex Robot

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Ratchet Tie Down 101

The ratchet straps we usually say is the assembly of straps and ratchet buckles, also known as ratchet tie down . Usually people use nylon or polyester webbing to make the straps , the safe load limit can range from less than 100lbs to more than 1000lbs , the width can range from 1 inch to 4 inches , usually we can see hooks, loops or chain extension at both ends of the assembly .

The ratchet buckle is primary made of steel, some buckles have plastic handles, some have aluminum handles, and there is one kind of buckle called one piece ratchet buckle, the handle is steel. For different applications and jobs, these ratchets come in with a few flavors, short handle, wide handle, long handle, long and wide handle ones, depends on their personal preferences and purpose, people will choose different ratchet handles for their tie down needs, it’s the varieties make ratchet straps the king of tie downs.

Both nylon and polyester webbing are used to make the straps, but they have different characteristics, for shock absorption, we need nylon webbing and for tie down bulk loads we need polyester webbing straps, nylon webbing has better elongation than polyester while polyester webbing are stronger than nylon ones, in real world applications we need varieties of straps for different jobs , that is to say we need both nylon and polyester webbing straps for different needs.

Webbing cab also be coated with suitable materials that will improve desirable characteristics, such as abrasion resistance, sealing to prevent penetration of foreign particles and matter, increased(or decreased) coefficient of friction, ultra-violet light resistance .

Of course the quality of the straps is the critical characteristic, to use these straps properly and safely is a must . Now we need to find low price yet high quality straps. Specialty stores will have almost all the straps you may need, and you probably are familiar with the people as well as the products in the store, and you don’t mind to pay a little premium for the service and quality. Actually there is a better way to acquire these straps, you guessed it, online stores are probably the best place to find wonderful deals, not most of the time but you will always find what you need, maybe not exactly but it will be close, and you may find some websites are pretty helpful in this regard, such as Trucker’s Deal, you will find extremely useful information about tie down stuff.

Tags: personal preferences, abrasion resistance, polyester webbing

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Thursday, March 24, 2011

PC Satellite TV Software

PC satellite TV retrospect is important as watching satellite online TV is all popular these days and if you are seriously look for a sure way to watch satellite TV on PC, then you should consider downloading a software program which is lovingly known as PC satellite TV software. It is prudent for you to learn more close to these software programs since there are a few options available. In fact, it is easy for you to find unbiased reviews of PC satellite TV software on different PC satellite TV review sites. As you read on, you will find an a place where you can find the details of this PC TV software spelt out nicely in a PC satellite TV review.

By recitation PC satellite TV reviews, you get a sense of what PC satellite internet TV software can do. This allows you to make an informed decision in finding a suitable software package for your calculator. With that, you can then join many others who are watching satellite TV online from their desktop and laptops. What an exhilarating experience! The TV channel variety available to you is huge and you would not have to grapple with special add up of channels offered by your topical anaesthetic satellite TV service provider.
As you read the PC satellite TV reviews, there should be a common similarity they contribution. They should mention that this software can be downloaded instantly once payment is made. You can then watch satellite TV on PC and run across the different channels that spans across the globe. One tip to note here: you can easily get a small-arm of quality software for less than $50. And it is a one-off fee.
PC satellite TV reviews often explain that the installation is easy. For people who have tried it, the general consensus is the setup is really simple and once installed, the satellite channels are streamed directly through your internet connection. The only difference is how aboveboard their interface is.
Two other things you should read up in PC satellite TV review selective information are software features that enable automatic rank to all TV stations and simple channel management. These features must be present in good PC satellite TV software in order to maximize your viewing experience.
Read an honest PC satellite TV review of satellite TV software at my TV blog and join the thousands before you that are watch satellite TV on PC.
Paddy is a successful webmaster, author and fan of live TV shows. Discover how you can instantly watch satellite TV on PC.

Tags: software program, internet tv, suitable software

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Reasonably Priced Home In The United States: Atlanta Real Estate

Tags: battle creek, metro city, home builder

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Review of the Top Olympus Digital Underwater Cameras

At this time there tend to be small amount of companies that have a digital camera line entirely based upon having the ability to go underwater and take pictures of sea life, or merely pictures of your children swimming underwater. Olympus features a plethora of underwater cameras and these are the very best one for business or personal.

The 3rd best underwater digital camera built by Olympus is the Olympus Stylus 770 SW. The 770 SW, that costs about $400, is actually not simply water-resistant, it is also shock resistant. It weight 5.5 ounces and has 7.1 MP, which is actually not bad regarding an under water digital camera. While in swimming pools, the 770 SW takes amazing shots, and does not leave much to the imagination when it comes to quality. However when it comes to open waters, the 770 SW can be much better. Some of the photos come out cloudy and it is hard to zoom.

Coming in at number two on our list is the Olympus waterproof digital camera Stylus Tough 6000. The Stylus Tough 6000 has 10 MP, a 5X optical zoom, which is good when you wish to get closer to the sharks when you would like take a photo, and it additionally features 20 various “scene” settings, that include Fireworks, night scene, snow and 3 underwater scenes. The Tough in its title is not necessarily simply the series its in. The Tough 6000 is not only water-resistant as well as shock resistant, but also freezeproof, crushproof and shakeproof.

The top rated Olympus underwater digital camera is the Stylus Tough 8000. Just like the 6000, the Tough 8000 has a 5X digital zoom, also shielded against freezing, crushing and shaking, but has 12 MP, and the ability to go more than 35 feet underwater. The 2.7 LCD viewing monitor on the back of the camera is actually two times as vivid as the 6000, and it offers face recognition software. So as long as there is a face in the photo, you are guaranteed picture perfect quality. In the Underwater Camera Review, this is the best buy, because is costs anywhere from $240-$380, depending upon what retail shop or online retailer you purchase it from.

Tags: Events, Potrait, Nature, Products, underwater camera
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Cairo is one of the highlights of the modern day tourist country of Egypt. Cairo is at once the capital city of the nation as well as the most bustling city for activity and Egypt tours. What are some of the highlights you can and should expect to see in any quality Cairo, Egypt tours? First reali...

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Digital Video Camcorder

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Pond Skimmer Filters- How to Install Pond Skimmer in Your Pond?

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Ceramic artist leaves this world

As a top up to date earthenware performer, Elsa Rady produced elegantly basic porcelain vessels and generally controlled how they have been presented by bolting the refined pieces into place. "She actually cast her own road and became a force," mentioned Jo Lauria, an impartial curator who incorporated Rady's do the job in "Craft...

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You Will Take Better Pictures With A Digital SLR Camera

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Wedding photography is best described as creative reportage in the modern day

My type of wedding photography is best described as creative reportage with contemporary portraiture. There's lots of buzz words around in wedding photography so I'll explain exactly what that implies below. When I first started wedding photography I was determined to do it in a way which exemplified almost everything I appreciate about photography, and just...

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Wedding Photography – Tips For Newbies

Photography for WeddingsBuilding a living out of wedding celebrations can be rather lucrative when an individual learns how to do it properly. If you are thinking on acquiring into the wedding photography business, here are some factors you can do to get began.Skilled photography is additional than the point and shoot that a large number...

Commercial Advertising Photo Shoots

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Virtual Assistant

A digital assistant is really a self-employed company owner who delivers administrative assistance to their clients. The customers might want a one time job, or a long term position. A virtual assistant may do secretarial duties, for example writing up letters and memo’s or contacting other enterprise persons for the client. Other duties a virtual assistant may well cover are customer service, messaging services, e mail blasts or autoresponders, e mail help, fax paperwork, and numerous other duties. A electronic assistants duties actually does vary drastically.

You’ll find a few key attributes to an excellent electronic assistant. Great grammatical skills are needed; no spelling errors are going to be acceptable. A electronic assistant have to be really organized since no a single will hire an assistant who doesn’t have their files arranged and handy. A electronic assistant having a wide range of expertise is sought after. Being technically savvy is vital particularly when you are a virtual assistant because it can be what individuals anticipate and need to have in such an net related business globe. Also, in this technological planet, you need to have the ability to take directions, understand them without having too several questions or difficulties, and get the function carried out, perfectly. A digital assistant must be on their toes, on the lookout for unforeseen issues that may well have been overlooked. Digital assistants have fantastic communication competencies, negotiating rates, deadlines, and project plans. But, unfortunately, these assistants must make sure that they make time for function. It’s really easy to have caught up in housework or the kids and not set aside work time at house. When deadlines are missed, it looks poor on your reputation as a electronic assistant.

A virtual assistant can make their own hours, as stated before, but they can also make their very own rates, which is great. They tend not to need to settle for acquiring paid too small for a large job. They don’t need to worry about prolonged commutes, and thus high-priced gas, leaving their youngsters at daycare, and stressful co-workers and bosses.

Other Subjects That You Might Find Interesting:Personal Checks, Magazine Subscriptions, Area Rug

Tags: secretarial duties, e mail, administrative assistance, grammatical skills, electronic assistants

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Business Consulting – “Economic Times Provide Home Internet Business Opportunity”

In this time of desperation and financial down flip I couldnâ€™t improve but share the useful info that I possess learned from the world wide web. I possess truly located out how to make great income even though I function with this home web business. There are many sites out there that make the declare that anyone can receive with this house world wide web business and bring in a lot of income. Let me inform you this is not true. If you are sitting at house and possess no determination or skill or no determination to discover a new talent you cannot receive with this residence world wide web organization and be successful. All the other tools can be provided. With the company that I found all of those â€˜otherâ€&commerce; instruments are provided.
If you may generate thousands and thousands at residence and had the expertise you would already be performing it. I have been in many new business ventures. Many had stellar products and many had great programs but till this direct not one of them worked for me. Right after a job loss and an rapid necessity for income developed the requirement to really discover how to generate plenty of money although targeting at residence. I did not intend to investigate tireless hours to earn a messily $one thousand a month. I wished to realize how to bring in with an world-wide-web business enterprise and make the variety of income that would guarantee financial freedom. I understood the approach was possible but I additionally understood it had to be a thing which the average â€˜Joeâ€™ could duplicate with ease.
Achieve financial independence with this internet company possibility
via Aspirations! Check out Aspirations nowadays to aspire in direction of top financial prosperity and bodily health!

For a lot more facts business consultant

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By Leah LProctor Article2008.com

Tags: new business ventures, financial prosperity, plenty of money

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Quantitative Easing 101

Quantitative Easing (QE) are the latest buzz words in the financial markets. It is important to become intimately comfortable with these words because they will be the catch phrase of 2009 thanks to the latest interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

What is Quantitative Easing?

Quantitative Easing is a monetary policy tool that central banks use when they run out of room to cut interest rates. The word "Quantitative" refers to the money supply and easing money supply means to increase it. For many people, this term is new and with good reason because it was only coined by the Bank of Japan in 2001 after they took interest rates to zero. When that happened, they obviously had no more room to cut rates, which made Quantitative Easing their Plan B.

Quantitative Easing basically involves printing money to buy a variety of securities with the end goal of flooding the financial markets with cash or liquidity. By doing so, it increases the amount of currency in circulation which reduces the value of the currency and boosts inflation. A good way to look at this is if there were only 100 signed Babe Ruth baseball cards worth $1000 each in the world and all of a sudden another 1000 signed baseball cards were discovered, then you would expect each baseball card to now be worth a lot less. Having more baseball cards in the market at lower prices hopefully spurs more activity in the baseball card market. In many ways, the goal of Quantitative Easing is the same. By the flooding the market with liquidity, the central bank aims to promote lending and prevent a shortage in the future. Of course Quantitative Easing is much more involved than baseball card trading.

What Outcome Can Be Expected from Quantitative Easing?

Granted that Quantitative Easing has only ever been implemented once in Japan, there is not much precedent. However with that in mind, we are sure that the Fed analyzed the outcome of Japan's zero interest rate policy before bringing US interest rates within a whisker of Japan's 2000 levels.

The Bank of Japan embarked upon this new concept in monetary economics in its effort to fight a frustrating period of economic stagnation and decline in 2001 which lasted until 2006. With rates at 0% the central bank was forced to implement some new level of policy to fight the wave of deflation that had plagued the country. Deflation, another renewed catch-word in today's economic climate, is an overall decline in prices over an extended period of time. We are all familiar with how disastrous an inflationary state can be on an economy, unfortunately deflation is no different. The cause of the phenomenon is when consumers become so resistant to spending that sellers are forced to continuously cut prices. In Japan, the BoJ accomplished their easing targets by expanding the limits as to the types of securities that they would purchase; for instance buying long-term treasuries, asset-backed securities, equities, and new levels of commercial paper. This is all in an effort to flood the financial system with so much excess reserves and liquidity that they would be forced to resume normal lending situations.

In the first year of Quantitative Easing, USD/JPY rose 18.5 percent. This means that the Japanese Yen weakened against the US dollar, which is a textbook reaction to Quantitative Easing. The Nikkei also dropped 28 percent. Between 2002 and the end of 2004, USD/JPY fell 22 percent as the Japanese economy began to stabilize. During that same time the Nikkei recovered 20 percent, but not before it fell another 20 percent. Although it has been heavily debated whether Quantitative Easing drove the turnaround in the economy, most people agree that it put a halt to deflation.

USD/JPY

Nikkei

Fed's Version of Quantitative Easing

With US interest rates pretty much at zero, the Federal Reserve has informally adopted its own version of Quantitative Easing. Some people may even argue that the Fed has been pursuing this strategy for months now. In conjunction with the Treasury department, the Fed has doubled their balance sheet in the past 3 months to more than $2 trillion. They have done this by purchasing direct equity investments in banks, easing standards on commercial paper purchases, made efforts to relieve institutions of their toxic asset-backed securities and is now considering buying Treasury bonds and agency debt. By buying these assets, they are adding money into the financial system. Like the Yen, Quantitative Easing exposes the US dollar to significant downside risks, but it is also the step that the central bank needs to take to stabilize the US economy and to prevent a deflationary spiral.

Kathy Lien
http://www.gftforex.com

DISCLAIMER: GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS Licence 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. © 2008 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Interior Designers Just Can’t Get Enough Of Aeron Seats

One of the biggest difficulties an interior designer can come across is the place their client ask them to give a design that provides comfort and with an indication of modern class. In certain parts of Asia, interior designers are becoming additionally connected with some sort of mysticism as they practice Feng Shui as well, or the art of arranging home furniture and the very house layout to bring good fortune. Many designers have become professional consultants than a regular contractor to builds houses for those who consider and insist that the very homes they live in be turned into a work of art. But modifying a house into some thing artistic would usually mean compromising comfort in the process. Many sofas and other chair designs that support a contemporary and imaginative design can be quite uncomfortable because of the designer’s intention to instill the style within their furniture, some comfort-providing features are sacrificed. And while many designs have tried to support the full coziness and convenience that is so important with regard to family room chairs and sofas, and just a few designs have met the standard. And one of those seat designs that have been gaining the praises of interior designers in terms of class and comfort thrown into one are Aeron chairs. These immaculately created chairs, contrary to common information, are not just limited for office use. Herman Miller has developed a whole line of anatomically developed seats that have exceptional comfort and style in mind, beginning from the drawing boards and up to the assembly line; the Aeron chair is truly an interior designer’s reverie. One thing that office and home developers love about these kinds of chairs is that not only are they cozy, their unique design blends along with today’s fashionable home designs. And if their clients are planning to build a residential office and they’re in a spending budget, used Aeron chairs are big money savers plus they are sold almost half the price of a whole new one with very little difference, since they have a guarantee of 12 years. Definitely, interior creative designers love these seats as they harmonize with their particular client’s desire to create a home or office design that’s not just comfortable, but with a bit of class too. – aeronC52e72a6f

Tags: home furniture, room chairs, aeron chairs

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The Relationship Between Crude Oil And Cad

Historically speaking, crude oil and the Canadian dollar have had a very strong relationship, most of the time, the two assets having a high degree of correlation.

This can be explained by the fact that Canada holds the second biggest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. Moreover, a large amount of these oil reserves are pumped into the United States, making Canada the biggest energy source for the U.S. economy. Thus, investors focus on crude oil prices to gauge the Cad’s direction of trading.

The correlation between crude oil and Cad was pretty easy to exploit in time, but all this came to an end over the last few weeks as crude oil began to quickly drop while the Canadian dollar declined only a few basis points throughout the same period. Most likely, this happened because of two different fundamental drivers: oil dropped as the market was re-pricing the outlook of the global demand, while Cad traded mostly range-bound, together with the dollar index and the other major currencies, as it seems the financial market saw more dollar than it would ever need (thus the market stayed in risk-aversion mode only for a short period).

The attached chart shows how the cad and crude oil have behaved over the last 15 months (from 03.01.2008 to 07.14.2009), while the secondary chart shows the weekly correlation between the two. The green area denotes the periods when the implied correlation was between -0.5 and -1.0, which are the phases when crude oil can be used to forecasts Cad’s direction. As a note, the extended periods when Crude oil and Cad had no correlation or moved in the same direction - as the one we have right now, denoted by the fact that the correlation index swings between -0.5 and 1.00- happened only when the market reversed the prior trend.

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5 Tips for Trading During Volatile Markets

Increased volatility leads many traders to seeing an increase in trading opportunities. The huge market swings trigger thoughts of monumental upside, but also for potential loss especially if traders do not take the necessary precautions. During times of volatility, traders need to adjust their strategy to compensate for erratic market. When trading during these market conditions, traders should follow the rules below.

1. Be More Selective Before Placing Trades

Wanting to take advantage of all the trading opportunities that present themselves in volatile markets, traders are tempted to place an increase number of trades. This temptation should be avoided. It is important to remember that in volatile times, losses are likely to be big. Before placing a trading, assess risk tolerance levels. Determine the level of risk that is acceptable for the trader both psychologically and financially before placing any trades.

2. Use Less Leverage

During high market volatility, losses can be traumatic. With the average trading range increased in volatile times traders should be considering how leverage will affect trades. At a one percent or even a half percent margin, investors should be mindful of how much leverage or even the size position being traded can affect their portfolio. In normal market conditions, placing a 2 lot position is fine when you are looking to make about 50-100 pips. During a more volatile time, when the potential loss is 100-200 pips, it stops being an effective risk to reward ratio. To compensate traders should look to taking on smaller trading positions, in this case only one lot as opposed to the average 2 lot position.

3. Trade with More Discipline

Traders should always follow their predetermined trading strategy regardless of market condition. During volatile markets, this is even more important to use that same level of restraint. Traders must adhere to any set stops, contingency plans or risk management benchmarks without hesitation. This will help to define how much risk is taken should price action be uncontrollable. Without this level of discipline and self control losses can be great.

4. Tighten Stops

Many traders are hesitant to use tighter stops in volatile markets because they see the large swings increasing the likelihood that the position will be taken out. Having tighter stops can also provide great risk managers in times of extreme volatility. For example, on a EURUSD trade, rather than setting an 80 pip stop to protect your position, consider placing a 50-60 pip stop. This will insure the protection of your currency position and if the stop is broken, there is a high likelihood that the trend will continue lower and the stop took you out before you could potentially lose more money.

The width of the stop being set does depend on the currency pair being trading as some pairs have wider ranges. In a Yen cross like the GBPJPY or AUDJPY, traders may be more likely to have wider stops as their average daily range is 50% more than that of the EUR/USD. With that said, stops during volatile market conditions should not as wide as before. Instead of a stop 100 pips below entry, traders may consider a 25 pip reduction and have a 75 pip stop. Below is a chart showing the EURUSD and the GBPJPY on the same very volatile day in the forex market. The EURUSD had an impressive range of nearly 600 pips! The GBPJPY far dominated though with nearly a 2000 pip trading range.

5. Be Prepared

It also helps a trader to know what is causing the current spate of volatility in the markets in order to be prepared for the unexpected. As such, an investor can accommodate their strategy to the market environment and not just the currency pair being traded. The first of these considerations is accounting for emotions in a market: is fear currently driving the market lower? Or is it buyer's mania that is keeping the bullish tone alive? Traders' overreaction and emotion tend to push markets to overextended targets. This fact alone creates volatility through simple supply and demand.

Volatility can also, and more than likely will, be sparked by economic events. In this instance, market participants may interpret fundamental data differently and not as cut and dry as the more novice trader. A perfect example of this is usually monthly manufacturing reports that are released in pretty much all industrial economies. The classic scenario has the market honed in on a particular number for the month. However, traders young and old will sometimes wonder why the market sold off if manufacturing showed positive growth. The answer is simple. The market had a different interpretation and positions were violently reshaped and shifted. These tend to create great opportunities for some and horrible memories for others. Below is an hourly chart of the EUR/USD during ISM Manufacturing for October 1, 2008. Here we can see the huge price gap that occurred due to market volatility as well as the resulting trend.

Panic and erratic momentum can additionally be found in certain market environments. Not to be confused with fear or greed, panic selling and buying can create very choppy and relatively untradeable markets. These conditions will lead some to flip flop their positions while leaving others gaping at the fact that the position was right, only to be stopped out prematurely. These two common examples will create further panic and volatility as traders abandon their own individual strategy for the possibility of instant profits or stoppage revenge. As a result, a vicious cycle of volatility ensues until a definitive market direction can be established.

The simple rules above, and a task of getting to know the current trading environment, can empower every trader through the ranks. Although some relate volatility with difficult and untouchable markets, opportunities continue to remain abound in these less than attractive conditions to those focused and fortunate.

By following these five simple steps, trading in volatile market conditions should be a little simpler. Don't forget to adjust leverage based on volatility, follow your trading plan, tighten your stops and know why you are getting into a trade before you place it.

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